FIPS
General trading defaults for the FIPS exchange.
Kalshi
Place orders at a fixed offset from Kalshi prices. Bid at their price minus edge, ask at their price plus edge.
ERCOT
Price derivatives based on forecast data, historical patterns, and volatility estimates.
Futures
Price futures markets based on where current price falls in the settlement range. Fair value is linearly interpolated between min and max.
Example Calculation
WTI Crude: Current $72, Range $40-$90
Fair value: (72 - 40) / (90 - 40) x 100 = 64
With edge : quote /
Weather (NOAA)
Price weather markets based on forecast temperature vs threshold. Uses forecast uncertainty and time decay.
Example Calculation
Forecast: 45 degrees in 2 days, Threshold: 40 degrees ("Will it go under 40?")
Uncertainty: 2 days x = degrees std dev
Distance: 5 degrees from threshold = sigma ~ % chance "Yes"
Quote: /